Superforecasting: Aaron Rodgers Will Return This Season
Our case on why Rodgers is in a position to return to play this season.
Philip Tetlock wrote a fantastic book on the art of gathering information, analyzing the information sources, and making predictions about certain events based on that information. He titled the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, and is an evidence-based summary of the Good Knowledge Project, a research think tank dedicated to the process of how humans can find information signals in a an extremely noisy world (on the topic, The Signal and The Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail - but some don’t, is another fantastic book).
Forecasting is not new to the field of human performance, as it occurs daily in our media intake, from coaches, medical professionals, and pundits as they discuss the likelihood of certain events occurring within the sporting world, whether that be who is going to perform highly and who is going to get injured. As Tetlock discussed in his book, the ability to accurately forecast depends on a few factors that an individual must possess to be effective. Open-mindedness, the ability to detect patterns, the ability to minimize cognitive biases, and a penchant for updating prior beliefs. To be a super forecaster requires the ability to discern the most important information about the topic and combine it with information already known (or known in the future) and having the cognitive acuity to weigh the information appropriately with the goal of decision-making and prediction accuracy.
Our Aim at Absolute
We find the ongoing Aaron Rodgers injury, surgery, and current rehab, treatment, and training with the goal of returning to performance storyline to be intriguing. As strength practitioners who are always eager to learn, this situation provides a valuable learning opportunity for us. Our primary objective is to gain insights from a distance, using the available subjective information to assess where Rodgers objectively is in his rehab and training timeline. As we continue to receive updates on the situation's progress, we aim to share our insights.
The second aim, to place some skin in the game, is that we are going to take our accumulation of information and create an objective projection based a probability as to whether or not Rodgers will return this season. For us, we're placing a bet that Rodgers will make a return this NFL season. We'd like to extend an invitation to our subscribers who are following along with us to share their feedback and make a wager of their own in the comments section below.
The Injury
In the first week of the NFL season, newly acquired New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles tendon while making his Jets debut. The Jets' acquisition of Rodgers was the most significant roster change of the NFL offseason, leading the league to choose them for their HBO documentary series 'Hard Knocks' to follow Rodgers and the team.
Unfortunately, just three plays into their first game of the season, a primetime Monday Night Football matchup against the Buffalo Bills, Rodgers suffered an Achilles tendon injury. As a result, ongoing coverage of Rodgers and his injury continues to be a prominent storyline.
Surgery: The Achilles SpeedBridge
This storyline placed a spotlight on the surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache. According to Rodgers, Dr. ElAttrache performed a newer, innovative surgery, pushing it beyond normal protocols called the SpeedBridge. The outcome of the surgery was deemed a success. Generally, the surgical procedure involves:
Elevating the Achilles tendon from most of its insertion.
Removing any bone spurs and degeneration of the tendon.
Reattaching it to the heel bone using strong sutures, known as the 'Achilles SpeedBridge.'
It is important to note that while we generally understand Rodgers' surgical procedure, having not been in the operating room, we do not know the specifics. Below is a video for those who are interested.
To provide a concise summary of the injury and surgery timeline and offer further context, Rodgers ruptured his Achilles tendon on Monday, September 11th. Subsequently, on Wednesday, the 13th, he underwent successful surgery.
It's important to emphasize the significance of the SpeedBridge in protecting the repair process by limiting excessive tissue lengthening. Acting as a rate limiter, a function usually carried out by the tissue itself, the SpeedBridge has ignited conversations about the potential for Rodgers to make an earlier return. This development introduces an intriguing and compelling aspect to the storyline.
Injury: Tissue Perspective
To offer a more comprehensive explanation of his injury, especially for the benefit of strength practitioners who are interested in making informed forecasts, it's crucial to understand that this was a tissue-specific connective tissue injury. This injury occurred during a situation at the level of competition of force transmission, where the connective tissue (specifically the Achilles tendon) experienced a force overload— increased force was imparted into the tissue than it could effectively bear and transmit. This excessive load occurred during a change of direction, resulting in a mechanical tear and eventual tissue rupture.
From a tissue perspective, this change of direction represents an injury as the tissue attempted to react and reverse its lengthening, essentially transitioning from elongation to shortening. Subscribers can recognize this as a failure of reactive strength, a fundamental component of Point B
Rodgers Storyline Subjective Information Flow
Adding to the uniqueness of this situation, Aaron Rodgers appears on the Pat McAfee show weekly, offering us subjective updates on the progress of his recovery (see video below for most recent update). While this feedback is subjective and lacks the objectivity we usually prefer, it introduces an element of uncertainty that makes the decision-making process more interesting. Typically, as practitioners, we rely on both objective and subjective feedback loops to make informed decisions. However, in this case, we're working with exclusively subjective information provided by Rodgers.
Our Bet: Aaron Rodgers Will Return to Play this Season
By combining the subjective information provided by Rodgers with the insights we've presented, we at Absolute are now positioned to place a wager on the likelihood of Rodgers returning during this NFL season. Specifically, this wager hinges on the condition that the Jets find themselves in playoff contention - meaning: if the Jets make the playoffs, Rodgers will play in the playoffs.
Our Bet’s Thesis
Here's a condensed explanation of our bullish thesis regarding a return by Rodgers based on the current information we can aggregate:
Aside from two fractures (collarbone and foot), Rodgers has been relatively injury free during his 15 year career. He does have a previous calf injury however with it being in 2014, it probably has little to no bearing on his Achilles injury and now his rehabilitation.
All signs of Rodgers physical health prior to his injury were at the very least adequate, otherwise he would not have been put in the position of starting the game on the night he was injured. This is important in that there are no extenuating circumstances that would take away from solely focussing on rebuilding his Achilles tendon.
Rodgers suffered a connective tissue-specific injury. We previously discussed the issue of tissue senescence, which we believe was a likely contributor to this injury. Our thesis centers on the idea that the SpeedBridge implant serves as a scaffolding that is not susceptible to senescence. From a tissue-specific perspective, this places Rodgers in a better position than he was before.
There has to be a reason why Dr. Neal ElAttrache was sought out to perform the surgery - which is the SpeedBridge. It is our opinion based on the information regarding the SpeedBridge, that this surgery with this surgeon was the one the Rodgers opted for, with the specific intent of returning to play at a faster rate than what other surgical options would have provided.
The significance of the SpeedBridge implant cannot be understated. First and foremost the “bridge” portion, is intended to replicate the natural extracellular matrix bridge that would occur after any soft tissue insult occurs the area. With this bridge already “pre-formed” and appropriately tensioned it allows for the cellular material to organize in a more direct manner with less time elapsed to do so. This is very important for re-establishing the architectural properties of the Achilles tendon from fibroblastic cells as tension across the bridge is the signal the cells use to remodel.
In addition, the SpeedBridge is also limiting his ability to lengthen tissue - which was one of the stimuli that led to the injury, at an early stage of cellular remodelling would be a relative contraindication. This enables Rodgers to load the tissue which continues to signal to the fibroblasts to remodel directionally further stimulating connective tissue architecture. This will allow for a more robust internal structure within the Achilles.
Rodgers is wearing a heel lift. Again, this aligns with the goal of the allowing for loading of the Achilles within defined length tolerances that are internally controlled by the surgical repair as well as externally controlled. This will further aid in building adequate tissue stiffness over progressive angles of ankle dorsiflexion.
Players have returned to play at a faster rate having undergone the SpeedBridge repair. The quickest an NFL player returned to performance post recover from an Achilles injury was when running back Cam Akers returned to the field just five months after his Achilles rupture two years ago. Akers also received the speed bridge surgery from Dr. ElAttrache, although he was about 15 years younger than Aaron Rodgers is today.
We will continue to follow along and aggregate all the relevant information concerning Aaron Rodgers and his quest to return to play.
For more information on the Rodgers’ storyline, check out this article written by the Joe Pompliano Huddle Up Substack.
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